Teams that have high-end goaltending, or two very good goaltenders (looking at you, Islanders), tend to have higher GAR projections in this model. The large differentiator in the projections is the quality of goaltending. The projection model did not value Frederik Andersen very highly (-1.3 GAR from the season prior), but in this season’s updated projections using the last two year’s averages, he has 18.6 GAR. Obviously, the big miss was on the Carolina Hurricanes. In the Metropolitan Division standings projections from last season, here’s how the division standings looked:Īnd here’s what the actual division standings panned out to be last season: How accurate were last season’s projections? This time, we took the average of the past two season’s performances to help even out one-hit-wonder seasons and make some of the projections a bit more accurate. That’s not saying that’s his expected level of performance, but it’s a standardized route for a league wide projection.įor goaltenders, we had previously used their GAR performance from the prior season to project out their upcoming season. Players like 2022 first overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky were not given a projection, so he was one of the few given a GAR projection of zero. Other players like Carey Price and Brent Seabrook, who are expected to miss the entire season were omitted.Īlso, for players who either did not play in the NHL last season or did not have a projection in Evolving Hockey’s data set were given a replacement level score of zero so they wouldn’t overly affect team’s projections. Players who have a chance of returning from the long-term injury list were also included, like Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and Carl Hagelin. Methodologyįor each team’s GAR projection, I used the NHL roster listed for each team on CapFriendly’s team page. If you’d like to learn more about GAR or some of the other statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL analytics glossary. The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Evolving Hockey. I’ll talk a bit about the methodology used for calculating the teams’ overall GAR projections, as well as compare some of the projections we made last season to see just how accurate the model is. In this post, I’ll project what the overall Eastern Conference standings will look like using GAR. On the other hand, defensive value is really important to measure in terms of player value outside of just the overall “eye test”. The advantage of GAR as a means for measuring overall player value is that it gives us a real insight into the holistic performance of a player, unlike than the typical box score statistics like goals, assists, points, and plus-minus.Īt the end of the day, goals, assists, and points are important in measuring offensive contributions that results in actual goals scored. Photo: a series of articles last season, we projected the potential standings of each NHL division using Goals Above Replacement (GAR), a metric that encapsulates player value for every game situation and compares that performance to a replacement level player.
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